THE latest report from the United Nations’ anti-HIV agency, UNAIDS, which was released on July 14th at the Third International Conference on Financing for Development, in Addis Ababa, contains much good news. The headline figures, of the number of AIDS-related deaths and new infections a year, have fallen since 2005 by 41% and 24% respectively. They now stand at 1.2m and 2m.
The rate of new infections had been falling since the late 1990s, as various anti-transmission measures, especially the use of condoms, were pushed heavily. But the drop in the death rate is the consequence of a third number, which is that 15m of the 37m people reckoned to be infected are now receiving drug treatment. This treatment, known as antiretroviral therapy, or ARV, not only keeps them alive, it also greatly reduces the risk of their infecting others. ARV’s introduction in poor countries began in earnest in 2003, with the intention of getting 3m people on the drugs by 2005. It is no coincidence that this period is when the death rate peaked.
Some places have done much better than these average numbers. Ethiopia, the meeting’s host, has brought the death rate down by 71% from its peak in 2005. South Africa has reduced it by 58% in the past five years alone.
Equally important, this progress looks likely to continue. The $22 billion reckoned necessary to keep the show on the road this year will probably be raised successfully. Some will come from international donors. The Global Fund—an international not-for-profit organisation thath acts as a conduit for rich-country money intended to combat AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria—plans, for instance, to chip in $4 billion. Billions more will come from direct country-to-country donations. These days, though, all but the poorest places pay much of the bill themselves. South Africa, for example, picks up the tab for almost all of the 3.1m of its citizens who are on ARV. Altogether, 57% of the $22 billion will come from the countries where the money is spent.
An annual toll of 1.2m is still vastly too high, of course. And AIDS activists are ever-wary of a slackening of effort. But if progress continues at the current rate, the report suggests, the epidemic could be over by 2030.